AI and Jobs: Why Automation Isn’t Cutting Work Yet

Fears that artificial intelligence is rapidly displacing human workers may overstated, at least for now. New research from Vanguard suggests that jobs most exposed to AI automation are not shrinking. In fact, they are growing faster than before the Covid-19 pandemic. This challenges widely held assumptions about AI’s immediate impact on employment. 

Vanguard analyzed roughly 140 occupations with high exposure to AI, including office clerks, HR assistants, law clerks, typists, and data scientists. Those are roles where a large share of tasks could theoretically be automated. Contrary to expectations, employment in these roles grew by 1.7% between mid-2023 and mid-2025, outpacing their pre-Covid growth rate of 1% from 2015 to 2019. By comparison, job growth across all other occupations has slowed during the same post-pandemic period. 

Wage data tells a similar story. Real wages in AI-exposed roles rose just 0.1% annually before Covid but accelerated to 3.8% post-Covid. Less AI-exposed jobs saw a much smaller increase, from 0.5% to 0.7%. If AI were broadly undermining labor demand, these pressures would likely be reflected in falling wages. 

Key insights from the analysis include: 

• AI-exposed jobs are expanding faster than before Covid 

• Real wages in these roles are rising more rapidly than average 

• Entry-level employment has not collapsed, despite automation concerns 

The findings contrast with warnings from some AI leaders and anecdotal reports from the Federal Reserve that cite selective job cuts and reduced hiring tied to automation. Vanguard’s economists argue that while AI is reshaping workflows, its ability to fully replace workers remains limited due to reliability issues such as model errors and hallucinations. 

Still, researchers caution against complacency. As AI systems improve, certain roles—particularly in customer service, legal support, and data analysis—could face future disruption. For now, however, the data suggests AI is augmenting work more than eliminating it, signaling a gradual transition rather than an immediate labor shock. 

 

Source: 

https://edition.cnn.com/2025/12/18/business/ai-jobs-economy